Nascar
The playoffs are pushing forward, so while we wrap up Round 1, we only have two games on tonight’s slate. Nevertheless, there is still plenty of strategy to think through and plenty of money to be made. The flagship GPP has $5k up top on DraftKings, which is a bit smaller than usual, but we’re still going to go for it. There’s a lot of star power on tonight’s slate with four strong teams going at it.
SaberSim is making it clear that two teams stand out. The most exposure that I have to any team in my portfolio on DK is the Colorado Avalanche. I’m getting to the Avs as my main stack in nearly half of my lineups. Things may change as we get closer to lock, but given the current projections that’s where I’m at.
After Colorado, SaberSim is very high on the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning are tied with the Dallas Stars for the lowest total, but on a four-game slate they make a lot of sense. I like Tampa more than Dallas because the scoring in Tampa tends to be more concentrated, whereas the Stars spread out their ice time quite a bit. That trend for Dallas has continued into the playoffs. Tampa also has the strongestv power play on tonight’s slate, so if they get a few penalties, the Lightning can go off. Finally, it’s those power play stacks for Tampa and the Avalanche that are the ones standing out. Despite this being only a two-game slate, SaberSim is finding my highest graded lineups in terms of simulated ROI to be 5-man and 6-man onslaught stacks.
Over on FanDuel, it’s a very similar story. Without making changes to SaberSim, I’m getting to the Avalanche and Lightning, in spades. That might lead me to limit my exposure over on FD, just to get a greater spread of lineups in my portfolio. I certainly want to get to those plays at a high rate, but I do feel that my portfolio should include a bit more diversity to play it safer tonight.
Tonight’s slate is small, but it lends itself to decent leverage spots. We’ll have to think through these more and more as the slates get smaller and the playoffs push on. Good luck and catch you on Discord. LFG!
