Nascar
The NHL continues to “bless” us with 2-3 game slates on Mondays and Wednesdays and then massive 12+ gamers on Tuesdays and Thursdays. That’s bad news for consistent DFS play, but it does give us better contests twice a week and a way to home in on strategy for the large-slate style. I think that even on the small slates we’ve figured out through experimenting with SaberSim (and a little intuition) that the onslaught slates grade really well relative to the traditional 4-mans. That is likely to be the case on these big slates too, where were really looking to get fewer things right and capture the outliers we need and that will certainly happen given the number of games.
When running SaberSim early in the day without changes to projection, I landed on a whole lot of Florida stacks of the 5-man variety. That’s bound to change as we get closer to lock, but it still says something about where we sit right now, and Florida’s value and correlation. The Panther’s top even-strength line is fully correlated with Reinhart-Verhaghe-Barkov. They aren’t cheap, but you can tack on Samoskevich and Ekblad for full powerplay correlation at a pretty solid value. When I ran these in SaberSim, it showed how easily this was to build and still get in a strong 2-man or one off, including lineups with Bedard and one with Brayden Point. Those guys aren’t Connor McDavid, but they can certainly get there as one-offs.
The 4-man stacks came up in my top-10 ROI twice, both using the Red Wings. It’s another team with solid correlation, solid powerplay, and in a strong matchup with ~3.5 implied goal total on tonight’s slate. Detroit has been pretty middling to bad all season, but the value is there tonight.
It bears repeating that this is a pretty early look and things will change as post approaches. Keep an eye out for injury news and any other changes that might shift these dynamics. If you’re looking for more info, join us in the Premium Discord channel, where I’ll try to post things close to lock, and even get on the voice channel to chop it up as we build our final lineups before the slate starts at 6 CT. Good luck!
