Nascar
The only question I had after running SaberSim lineups this afternoon, is “how much Dallas, is too much Dallas?” The sims were loving the Stars, especially when I loaded in Goldy’s projections. Using SaberSim out of the box still landed me a boatload of Dallas, but I also got to a healthy dose of Detroit. That’s not the case with TrueDFS custom projections, where Dallas was loading into 100% of my lineups in the sims.
Then there is that debate of how to answer the question. Personally, I’m a bit uncomfortable going all in on one team across a 20+ lineup portfolio, so while I had a lot of diversity after Dallas, it was just too much for me to expose myself. I lowered my leverage to Dallas to about 40% to get a much healthier dose of the Stars on tonight’s slate. Forty percent is fine, and I’m happy to go down with the Stars in that way. One of the problem with the Stars that is tough to realize in play-by-play sims is that their ice time is spread pretty evenly across their top three lines, and the power plays get split pretty evenly, as well. That just makes it harder to get outlier performances and really slate breaking upside. On the other hand, people know this and it can limit ownership and keep the Stars’ price down.
After the Stars, like I said above, SaberSim is getting to healthy amount of the Red Wings. This one makes sense from a pure leverage perspective. The Wings have a middling projection and implied team total, but they have reduced prices and ownership, making it easy to stack them up with high-price plays around them. The thing about the Red Wings is they take a lot of shots on goals, sometimes not the most “high danger” chances. But it only takes a couple to slip past the net to make a well-priced and low-owned stack the nuts on this kind of slate. Guys like Debrincat, Kane, and Larkin always have upside on offense.
Following Dallas and Detroit, SaberSim returned a pretty diverse portfolio, without exposure north of 15% to any other stack on the slate. That’s pretty good for me, and with how hard it is to survive night in and night out in DFS, I’m always happy to get diverse without having to do much to change my exposures to teams, stack types, or individual players. Throw in a few “uniques” and the portfolio looks solid, at least in the afternoon following a first run. We’ll see how things look right before lock. Good luck and LFG!
