Nascar
Today’s slate has a number of high-total spots, but also high-priced teams in those spots. The one standout is Tampa. Just like Tuesday, Tampa Bay is underpriced, and you can fit in their entire Power Play with some room left to spare. That’s pretty nice for a team with the third highest total on the slate. It isn’t that Tampa’s EV1 isn’t priced up. You have to pay a lot to get Kucherov, Point, and Guentzel. However, if you throw in the rest of the power play for correlation, you can bring Mitchell Chaffee and Darren Raddysh along for just about $3,000 each. The question is how high Tampa gets owned, and whether that chalk is worth eating. The answer will differ depending on whether you’re playing small field or large field GPPs on DraftKings and FanDuel.
When I run SaberSim, the highest owned teams I’m getting to early in the day are Winnipeg and Detroit. It makes sense given their current projected ownership and the necessity of leverage in GPPs. People don’t love to play Detroit because they aren’t a great team, but their struggles certainly aren’t on offense. The older guys like Kane and Debrincat can always put up numbers, and they’re in an average spot tonight against Utah. That said, Utah is worth mentioning, as well. Detroit’s defense is leaky and Utah has plenty of correlation and sound pricing that leads to strong middle-tier builds.
My single entry, small field contest sims on DraftKings had a lot of Utah and Tampa show up in the top ten. The other team that was popping is Nashville. They’re another squad that isn’t pretty and has a lot of older guys that have underperformed expectation in 2025. But the time to play them may be now in a strong spot at home against a weaker Seattle opponent. The pricing on Nashville is such that you can get them in with top-tier guys from Florida, Tampa, Colorado, and Edmonton.
These takes are bound to change throughout the day, but worth noting as we begin to look at the slate to see how the sims play out for tonight’s slate. Good luck!
