Nascar
Tonight’s slate is a tough one because two teams stand out. The Stars team total is nearly four goals, and they are up there with the Edmonton Oilers at ~3.5 implied goals. The question is if you can play them on such a large slate, and if so, how much of these teams should you play? That’s especially the case for the Stars that stand way out above the other seventeen teams on the night when you look at them point-per-dollar.
The answer from SaberSim is a resounding “yes” on a Dallas, and a hard “no” on the Oilers. The Stars are currently coming up in 35% of my top 20 builds when running sims for the flagship GPP on DraftKings. I’m getting to them in the form of 6-man and 5-man onslaughts. I didn’t get to any 4-3 stacks that had the Stars as the main stack. The only thing to be careful with when playing Dallas is that they do evenly split their ice team, so it’s never easy to choose between EV1, EV2, and even EV3.
That said, with 35% I am happy to keep that much exposure to such a strongly projected team. The rest of my portfolio is pretty well spread out. SaberSim is getting to a high leverage Pittsburgh spot at a high-rate, as well. I’m willing to take the Pens and go with it. Beyond that, there’s no team that represents more than 15% of my portfolio. I’m getting exposure to a lot of spots, which is managing risk pretty well. When all is said and done, these exposures could change as we get closer to lock. And of course, there’s always the possibility to late swap depending on how the early games play out. Only two games lock at 6pm CT and one at 630.
That’s all for today. Good luck on tonight’s slate!
