Nascar
Tonight’s slate of six games is pretty healthy for a Friday. Sometimes the NHL’s lopsided scheduling keeps Friday down to just 2 or 3 games, so we’ll consider ourselves lucky. The early look in SaberSim has the model suggesting a lot of Detroit, despite them being the lowest total team. The key for Detroit is the price and the ownership, which are both really low. That said, there isn’t a great chance of the Red Wings getting there, and plenty of ways to get different. The one thing that Detroit does have going for themselves is they shoot a lot, and despite their shots being low-danger chances, it only takes one or two extra to go in to get their at their prices.
After Detroit, the model is really liking the Anaheim Ducks. This one makes a bit more sense given that the Ducks have an easier than usual matchup against a Predators team that just hasn’t lived up to their pre-season expectations. Anaheim is cheap and easy to stack, but they have an implied total around 3-goals, working in their favor for one of the two late night hammers on this slate.
Winnipeg is usually a team we like to get on for their high totals and the Jets are usually favored in their games. That’s the case today, but not to the extent it is on most nights since the Jets host a strong Dallas Stars club. Nevertheless, that is keeping their ownership down, and their price, as well. The Jets are implied for about three goals tonight, which is right around the middle of the pack. The key for the Jets, and perhaps the slate, is the status of Nikolaj Ehlers. He didn’t practice yesterday and is considered day-to-day. If Ehlers it out, Perfetti or Iafallo will take his place on the Jets’ top power play, making them an extremely strong value. Beware, this has shades of Oliver Bjorkstrand on Tuesday, who laid a goose egg has min-priced mega chalk, stepping into a top PP role. It’s another important ownership decision, and despite Bjorkstrand’s bust, it will hard to avoid Iafallo if he’s in there.
Finally, Edmonton is looking like the top spend-up stack in Goldy’s projections and in SaberSim. It’s tough to fit in their full power play, but you can do it with a little left to spare. That said, you can get combos of the Oilers on even strength with Jake Walman that make the salary work better. Right now the ownership isn’t there on Edmonton, hence their high representation in SaberSim contest sims, especially for the flagship. If their ownership creeps up throughout the day, this can change.
These spots are sure to change throughout the day, so checkout TrueDFS.com to get access to all our models, including the new PayDirt DFS and betting models to make the best lineups right up to lock. Good luck!
