Nascar
There is a huge discrepancy on today’s slate between the Saber Score sorting metric and the contest sim ROI. And personally, I’m inclined to go with the latter. It’s such a small slate, and the Saber Score just isn’t doing a great job of factoring in the necessary leverage to take something down tonight. It wants you to play the Capitals in spades. On first glance, it makes sense because the Caps have by far the highest total (not to mention Ovi is so close to breaking the record). But the fact that they are getting so much ownership is a bit scary. Even the sims will get to some Washington, so if you’re getting a fair amount either way, you know the leverage just won’t be there.
The sims tell a different story and recommend doing things quite differently. When I ran sims for DraftKings on the flagship GPP– pretty small today– I got to a whole bunch of Detroit, followed by a diverse range of other teams. Detroit has the second highest total on the slate, but they feel more comfortable to me than just eating all that Washington chalk. You can also play the Blackhawks, but there’s probably no need to dip that far down in projection, at least not according to the sims.
On FanDuel, the sims were getting to the Blackhawks. It’s a matter of leverage and different from Detroit. I like playing one or the other on both sites if I were gonna run lineups on both. The reason the Blackhawks are favorable on FanDuel is more a pricing issue than anything else. When you play Chicago, you can pretty much do anything else with your lineup. That’s the case on DraftKings, but you can get other teams in a similar range.
So if I were doing it now, on this small slate, I’d be taking a healthy dose of Detroit on DraftKings and Chicago on FanDuel. Those are low probability plays, but the leverage makes sense on such a small slate where there’s one heavy chalk team. Finally, I’d cap my exposure somewhere so I still had a diverse exposure for some of my portfolio.
Good luck on the slate ya’ll!
