Nascar
It’s early in the day, but if things keep shaking out the way they are now, SaberSim is hell bent on playing the Montreal Canadiens tonight. I am getting to the Habs in spades on this slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I limited my exposure quite a bit in order to diversify. I also expect things to change as ownership and projections get sharper closer to lock. But as of now, it’s a Canadiens kind of night. SaberSim loves correlation and isn’t shying away from playing the Habs in conjunction with Sam Montembeault. “Dikembe” was by far my highest owned goalie on both sites.
Leverage is key in NHL DFS, so my next highest owned stack was the St. Louis Blues. The Blues make sense from a leverage standpoint, as their lower projections could keep them lower owned. But they aren’t that far off from Winnipeg in terms of implied goal totals and win odds, so you can easily notch a win with them, especially in large-field GPPS. The other key to the St. Louis-Winnipeg game is that it is the only “late” spot on the slate, offering a lot of swapability depending on how your lineups are performing. If lineups are doing poorly in the early going, it may make sense to swap them on to more St. Louis skaters and Jordan Binnington if he’s still available. Likewise, if lineups are performing well and nobody has broken the slate, swapping over to Winnipeg and/or Connor Hellebuyck makes a whole lot of sense.
The last thing to mention, especially regarding the Blues, is that Robert Thomas is coming up as a strong assist bet in the PayDirt model. You can get Thomas to record an “apple” at -105. That bet is popping as one of the highest ROI spots we’ve had so far in the playoffs. We played the Thomas assist props toward the end of the season and made some cash. Hopefully we’ll be doing the same tonight. Good luck on the slate!
