Nascar
Tonight is one of the last two-game slates of the season, so let’s make it count. When I run SaberSim on DraftKings and FanDuel and sim the contests, the builder is telling me that I absolutely have to play the Washington Capitals. That’s pretty scary because the Caps are the lowest projected team on the slate. However, SaberSim knows how important leverage is, so at such low ownership it really wants me to get to them tonight in Carolina. You can always see a guy like Ovechkin notching a couple goals, so at least there’s that. But the Carolina defense, well, that’s going to be tough.
Aside from the skaters, I’m getting to a boatload of Logan Thompson in net tonight. If I don’t cap my exposure on the Caps’ goalie I would get upwards of 70% on DK and 90% on FanDuel. That’s way too much for me for a goalie with +228 win odds, so I capped this at 50% and made sure to get even less on FanDuel. Now I have a much healthier exposure to the goaltenders tonight.
After the Capitals, it’s really even. I get to Edmonton the most, followed by Vegas and Carolina. Really, all these teams are similar in their totals, but the builder is slightly preferring the Oilers, probably because of their power play upside, which we know that SaberSim loves.
The top bets in the PayDirt model are a Lars Eller Over 1.5 SOG at +167 and Anthony Beauvillier Under 1.5 SOG at +126. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ assist under is looking good in that category. Remember to check out the model to find all the +EV bets as we wing down the season. Let’s go!
