Nascar
SaberSim loves leverage, which means it comes to no surprise that it is suggesting that I jam the Toronto Maple Leafs into my lineups for tonight’s slate. If I don’t make any exposure changes, I’m getting nearly 90% Leafs on both DraftKings and FanDuel. And of course, my highest exposed goalie is Joseph Woll at 93%!
That’s all a bit much to me, so I took the Leafs down and ended up getting to Winnipeg at a much higher clip on both sites. The Leafs are still a good spot for leverage, so I kept them at 50%, plus you can never go wrong with Auston Matthews. Not to mention, they are up 2-0 in this series, so perhaps they’ve finally found something that will work for them in the playoffs. I did bump them down a bit more on FanDuel, just so I could get more exposure to the other teams and build a more diverse portfolio of lineups.
Since I bumped the Leafs down and got the Jets and Dallas, it all leads me to believe that Florida is not going to be high enough owned given their chances of being the top scoring team on the slate. While it’s true that they are high priced and are going to get ownership, I think there’s some question if it’s going to be enough. If SaberSim and other sim products won’t suggest you play any of them, then perhaps the Panthers just get undrowned for their chances. I made sure to get a handful of exposure to Florida tonight on both sites so I won’t be completely high and dry if they outscore the other teams on the slate.
The top shot on goal bet in the PayDirt model is once again, Nikolai Ehlers to go under 2.5 SOG for +110. You can also get solid value on Tyler Sequin, Jamie Benn, and Matt Duchene assist props in that game, but be careful about the negative correlation between them. The best assist longshot in the early game is Gustav Forsling to notch an apple at +275. Let’s get it on the bets and in DFS. Good luck!
